The 2024 Limerick Direct Mayoral Election in June was a very positive exercise in local democracy which bodes well for future direct mayoral elections in Ireland, writes Dr Rory Costello, Associate Professor in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Limerick. Here he reviews the survey of voters on election day, which has formed part of the new National Election and Democracy Study.
On 7 June the people of Limerick city and county had the opportunity to vote in Ireland’s first ever direct mayoral election. In terms of voting behaviour, it was quite different to the norm, in that factors such as policy preferences, government satisfaction and partisanship had a much weaker impact on vote choice than is the case in Dáil or local government elections.
A majority (51.9%) of registered voters turned out to vote, which was slightly higher than the turnout nationally in the local elections held on the same day and was also up on the turnout in the local elections in Limerick five years previously.
Personal contact during the campaign was a very important factor in how people voted – a remarkable 57% of respondents who met John Moran went on to vote for him.
As this was a novel electoral event in the Irish context (and one that may be repeated in other parts of the country in the future), it is important to try and understand how voters treated the election. What did voters think of the new position of directly elected mayor, and what factors influenced who they voted for?
To answer these questions, An Coimisiún Toghcháin (Ireland’s independent Electoral Commission) commissioned a survey of voters on election day. The survey forms part of the new National Election and Democracy Study (www.neds.ie), which examines public opinion on electoral events and democracy in Ireland.
For the Limerick survey, face-to-face interviews were conducted by IPSOS with a random sample of up to 900 voters outside polling stations across Limerick City and County.
The survey reveals that voters held an overwhelmingly favourable view of the new position, with 81% of respondents agreeing that having a directly elected mayor is a positive development for Limerick.
This is a remarkable turnaround from 2019, when the plebiscite on the creation of the position passed by a very narrow margin (52% in favour, 48% against). The change in public opinion is likely to be due to a better understanding among voters about what the role entails and the potential benefits it can bring to Limerick, following an extensive public information campaign in the run-up to the election. In line with this interpretation, survey respondents who were more knowledgeable about the new position were more likely to express a favourable opinion of it.
Most voters appear to have been quite well informed about the new position. Respondents were presented with a list of five policy areas – Health, Housing, Crime, Transport and Environment – and the survey asked them whether they thought the mayor had powers in each of these areas.
A significant majority of respondents correctly answered that the mayor does have powers in relation to housing, transport and the environment; while only a minority of respondents believed that the mayor has powers in the areas of health and crime, which are policy areas where the mayor has not been formally allocated executive functions.
Election Candidates: A total of 15 candidates stood for election, including two sitting TDs (Green Party’s Brian Leddin and Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan) and four members of Limerick City and County Council. There was a candidate representing each of the main political parties, along with candidates from several minor parties and four Independents.
Electoral Commission Limerick Voter Survey – June 2024
Writing in ‘Council Review’ earlier this year, Dr Bríd Quinn warned that an election such as this, which concentrates power in the hands of one individual, could foster a form of populism whereby important issues are side-lined “in favour of attention-seeking mantras and emotional appeals”. In the event, this did not materialise.
The election was conducted in a positive spirit by all candidates, and candidates did not seek to exploit public discontent on emotive and divisive issues such as immigration (which is, of course, a national rather than a local policy issue, but one that dominated the news cycle at the time of the election). The issue priorities mentioned by most candidates were housing, transport and health – see www.WhichCandidate.ie.
