Results from the 2024 Local Elections confounded some of the usual expectations about mid-term elections, according to Dr Theresa Reidy, Political Scientist at UCC’s Department of Government and Politics. She says that the one characteristic of mid-term elections that was unquestionably present at the local elections was the low turnout of voters.
Unhappiness with government performance, protesting about specific political issues or a personal preference for a local candidate all underpin why voters behave differently at local elections relative to general elections.
While the local elections were held close to the end of the current Dáil term, we would still expect them to exhibit some of the distinctive characteristics of a mid-term election, where voters tend to be more likely to cast their ballot for opposition parties or Independents.
Mid-term election effects have been evident at Irish local elections over many decades, but this trend was partially disrupted in 2024. The government parties did have some losses but overall, they were modest (see Figure 1).
Fianna Fáil lost 31 council seats but it improved on its 2020 General Election vote share. Time in government since 2020 also yielded gains for Fine Gael which lost ten council seats but saw its vote share go up by two points.
The outcome is quite different for the Green Party which lost three points in support from its 2020 result. However, when this outcome is placed in a longer historical context, the drop-in support and loss of seats is not as severe as has been the case for many small parties in previous coalition governments.
Similarly, opposition parties and Independents had a mixed outcome. Sinn Féin as the lead opposition party was expected to make significant gains, in part because opposition parties usually do very well at mid-term elections. But more importantly, Sinn Féin support had increased notably in the years after the 2020 general election, peaking in the mid-30s during 2022.
While polls showed that its support levels were declining by the end of 2023, the party was still expected to have a very good local election day. Sinn Féin gained 21 seats but its vote share dropped precipitously from its February 2020 General Election result, marking the beginning of a torrid period of introspection for the party, which intensified in the early autumn following a series of party scandals.
The mixed opposition performance was also evident among some of the other smaller parties. Labour lost a seat but improved its vote share marginally while Solidarity-People Before Profit and the Social Democrats also gained seats.
Independents and micro-parties were the major beneficiaries of the changing voter preferences, and their combined performance improved by 14 points from their 2020 general election result.
The question which emerges from this review of the results is why the usual pattern of government penalty and opposition reward did not emerge. Fortunately, 2024 is an important moment in Irish election research.
In March 2024, An Comisiún Toghcháin (Electoral Commission) initiated a 25-year programme called the National Elections and Democracy Study (NEDS). This study will explore ‘the views, attitudes and experiences of the Irish public of electoral events and democracy and the factors that influence these’.
Post election surveys carried out in mid-June as part of NEDS provide valuable insights into why voters cast their ballots the way they did, and the data also reveal interesting insights into voter attitudes to local democracy.
First, we find that a very small proportion of voters have a consistent party preference at local elections, just six per cent of respondents in 2024 reported that they always vote for the same party. On the other side of the spectrum, 20 per cent of voters made up their minds about who they would vote for on the day of the election (see Figure 2).
There are some problems with this question, in that survey respondents are not always able to pinpoint exactly when they made a decision, but we have this data for general elections since 1997.
The trend is clear, with many more voters deciding who they will vote for during the campaign period. Campaigns are crucial and a majority of voters make up their mind in this three-week period.
